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Has Josh Allen’s Card Market Stalled Out?

Has Josh Allen’s Card Market Stalled Out?

Ben Burrows

Despite Josh Allen’s MVP campaign still being in play, his card market has stalled over the last two weeks after a stretch of poor play. Three straight games with two interceptions pulled his market down with a double-digit dip two weeks ago, and things haven’t really recovered since.

Read about Allen and other trending players in this week’s NFL Market Movers update.

Cards listed below are PSA 10s with a minimum average of $30 and 10 sales over the last 30 days.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE RISERS

1. Tua Tagovailoa 2020 Select Concourse PSA 10 📈 150%

2. Jordan Love 2020 Phoenix Fire Burst PSA 10 📈 145%

3. Jordan Love 2020 Optic Base PSA 10 📈 144%

4. Joe Burrow 2020 Absolute Base PSA 10 📈 109%

5. Jared Goff 2016 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📈 103%

IS GOFF FOR REAL? It’s not terribly uncommon to see non-hobby relevant players pop up here from time to time, so it’s not exactly shocking to see it with the season that Jared Goff is having. The Lions are just 5-7, but have won four out of five while Goff has piled up over 3,000 yards passing and a 19-7 TD-to-INT ratio in those 12 games.

The former No. 1 overall pick in 2016 has been solid since joining Detroit last season, and now there is discussion within the Lions organization if Goff is the QB moving forward, rather than an unknown from the upcoming 2023 NFL Draft. Don’t expect Goff to remain in this space for long as his prices likely don’t go much higher, but it’s an all-around nice bump for anyone that has managed to flip his cards over the last month for a decent profit.

Source: Market Movers
PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE DECLINERS

1. Zach Wilson 2021 Prizm Red Ice PSA 10 📉 76%

2. Justin Herbert 2020 Mosaic NFL Debut PSA 10 📉 52%

3. Zach Wilson 2021 Mosaic Green PSA 10 📉 51%

4. Randy Moss 1998 Topps Base PSA 10 📉 50%

5. Zach Wilson 2021 Optic Downtown PSA 10 📉 46%

WILSON CONTINUES TO DIP: Mike White has been the starter over Zach Wilson for two straight games now, so Wilson’s market is going to keep dipping until something changes on that front. Wilson’s 2021 Prizm Base PSA 10 and 2021 Optic Downtown PSA 10 have been the biggest decliners for him over the last month, and it’s just hard to see how his market recovers from here.

Even in just a small sample, White has been objectively better than Wilson so far this season — White has topped 300 passing yards in both his starts while Wilson has just once in seven starts. It’s fair to question whether White is actually the long-term solution in New York, but it also doesn’t seem likely that Wilson is either, and that’s the issue that is having a massive hobby impact right now.

Wilson’s PSA 10s tracked by Market Movers are down 25% collectively over the last 30 days and the end to the decline doesn’t seem to be close.

Source: Market Movers
DOLLAR GROWTH RISERS

1. Patrick Mahomes 2017 Optic Base PSA 10 📈 $167

2. Barry Sanders 1989 Score Base PSA 10 📈 $150

3. Patrick Mahomes 2017 Optic The Rookies PSA 10 📈 $125

4. Tua Tagovailoa 2020 Prizm Lazer PSA 10 📈 $107

5. Justin Fields 2021 Prizm Red Ice PSA 10 📈 $104

DOLLAR GROWTH DECLINERS

1. Trevor Lawrence 2021 Optic Downtown PSA 10 📉 $425

2. Zach Wilson 2021 Optic Downtown PSA 10 📉 $300

3. Tua Tagovailoa 2020 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 $285

4. Josh Allen 2018 Prizm Base PSA 10 📉 $232

5. Justin Fields 2021 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 $209

JOSH ALLEN HITS A WALL: Josh Allen‘s performance has dipped and his card prices have adjusted accordingly with it. An early MVP favorite, Allen started the season off with 17 TDs and just four interceptions across the first six games of the season. Since then, however, that ratio has dipped to just 8-to-7 with Allen throwing two INTs in three straight games in late October, early November.

Overall, Allen’s PSA 10s tracked by Market Movers are down 12% collectively over the last 30 days — following a trend the card market saw two weeks ago — and his signature rookies across Prizm, Optic, Select and Donruss are all down big over that same period, too. Allen’s 2018 Prizm Base PSA 10 has been hurt the most out of that group, dropping 33% for a $232 dip over the last month.

While Allen’s cards aren’t trending in the right direction, the good news is that the Bills are still 9-3 and first in the AFC East despite some shaky play over the last two months. Even with a declining market overall, Allen is popular enough in the hobby to see positive growth over the next few months as long as he and the Bills deliver in the playoffs.

Source: Market Movers
SALES VOLUME LEADERS

1. Josh Allen 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 141 sales

2. Justin Fields 2021 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 128 sales

3. Joe Burrow 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 121 sales

4. Justin Herbert 2020 Mosaic Base PSA 10 📈 109 sales

5. Mac Jones 2021 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 103 sales

POPULAR SEALED WAX (HOBBY BOXES WITH MIN. 10 SALES OVER LAST 30 DAYS)

1. 2022 Origins Football 📈 15%

2. 2022 Certified Football 📈 11%

3. 2022 Panini Black Football 📉 1%

4. 2022 Score Football 📉 7%

5. 2022 Select Draft Picks Football 📉 3%

Source: Market Movers
MARKET PULSE INDEXES OVER LAST 30 DAYS

Football 2018-2020: 📉 13%

Football 2010-2017: 📉 1%

Football 2000-2009: 📈 5%

Source: Market Movers

Football 1990-1999: 📉 3%

Football 1980-1989: 📈 1%

Football 1979 & Older: 📉 2%

Source: Market Movers

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