Poor Play Has Josh Allen’s Card Market Sliding Quickly
A betting favorite to win MVP before Week 1, Josh Allen has turned in three straight weeks of poor play and his card market has dropped significantly.
Despite the recent struggles, a deeper dive into Allen’s card prices shows us collectors and investors shouldn’t be too worried. Read about Allen and other trending stars in this week’s NFL Market Movers.
Cards listed below are PSA 10s with a minimum average of $30 and 10 sales over the last 30 days.
PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE RISERS
1. Tony Pollard 2019 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 266%
4. Patrick Mahomes 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 140%
RB1 POLLARD: The selling window for Tony Pollard has been extended for another week with Ezekiel Elliott‘s status still in question. The backup got his second straight start with Elliott sidelined, and piled up 128 total yards and a touchdown in the Week 10 loss to Green Bay.
It’s still hard to see Pollard as a long-term purchase for anything other than a personal collection, but the prices on his key 2019 Prizm Base PSA 10 remain strong thanks to great play and a pop of just 98. That low pop and fairly-low prices are likely helping prop up the percentage growth, and we’ll likely see prices correct when Elliott returns.
PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE DECLINERS
3. Mac Jones 2021 Prizm Red Ice PSA 10 📉 55%
4. Davis Mills 2021 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 54%
BAD NEWS MAC: There’s no real way around the fact that Mac Jones is flat out playing worse than he did as a rookie. There was serious discussion after last season that Jones might be the best QB out of a solid class that also includes Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson, but the reality is that Jones has regressed in a major way.
The Patriots are just 3-3 in Jones’ starts, and he’s tossed just four TDs in those six games with seven interceptions. His card market continues to correct accordingly, and Jones’ PSA 10s tracked in Market Movers are now down 30% collectively over the last 30 days. Things don’t look great even if you ignore the fact that Bailey Zappe stole Jones’ job earlier this season before losing it himself.
DOLLAR GROWTH RISERS
1. Justin Fields 2021 Optic Downtown PSA 10 📈 $345
2. Justin Fields 2021 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📈 $277
5. Patrick Mahomes 2017 Optic Base PSA 10 📈 $140
FIELDS STAYS HOT (SORT OF): Justin Fields has been arguably the most popular player in the sports card hobby over the last two weeks or so. A record-breaking rushing performance two weeks ago got things started and another 147 yards on Sunday has him on pace to break Lamar Jackson‘s single-season rushing record by a QB. After an extremely rocky start to his career, Fields has completely reshaped his card market. He’s only completed the first step to hobby success, though.
Fields entered the league with pretty high expectations, and several of his card releases show prices with success already cooked in. When wins didn’t happen his prices plummeted. So, realistically, the first step for Fields was actually proving he can play in the NFL at a high level, and now we’re actually starting to see his card prices recover back toward where they were originally at.
Delayed releases make his card charts a little wonky, but it’s clear that the first part of this season has all been about rehabilitating the damage he caused to his market as a rookie. The next step is actually getting the Bears to win some games — Fields’ market won’t survive if Chicago can’t start converting these performances into actual wins.
DOLLAR GROWTH DECLINERS
1. Tom Brady 2000 Bowman Chrome Base PSA 10 📉 $1,300
2. Josh Allen 2021 Optic Downtown PSA 10 📉 $605
3. Mac Jones 2021 Optic Downtown PSA 10 📉 $525
5. Barry Sanders 1989 Score Base PSA 10 📉 $275
ALLEN KEEPS SLIPPING — BUT DON’T PANIC: Three straight weeks of bad performances has one of the hobby’s favorite QBs dipping hard. Considered the MVP favorite entering the season, Josh Allen has struggled since Week 8, and has scored five total touchdowns against seven total turnovers in those three games. The Bills are 1-2 during that stretch, and Allen’s market is sliding quickly through back-to-back losses.
Allen’s key Base PSA 10s across Prizm, Optic and Donruss are all trending down over the last 30 days, and overall Allen’s PSA 10s tracked by Market Movers are down 13% collectively over the last month.
There’s probably not any reason to panic, however, as much of Allen’s market is still up year-over-year. While much of the sports card hobby has trended down over the last 365 days, Allen has maintained positive growth on many of his key cards. HIs PSA 10s are up 19% over the last 365 days, and signature rookies like his 2018 Prizm Base PSA, 2018 Optic Base PSA 10 and 2019 Donruss Base PSA are all up over the last year.
Allen has pulled this off all while the SCI 500 has dipped 24% over the last year and the Football 2018-2020 Market Pulse Index has dipped 29% over that same period. The Bills QB is certainly down over the last month, but his market is actually doing fairly well, all things considered.
SALES VOLUME LEADERS
1. Josh Allen 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 172 sales
2. Justin Fields 2021 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 119 sales
3. Joe Burrow 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 106 sales
4. Trevor Lawrence 2021 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 91 sales
5. Justin Herbert 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 88 sales
POPULAR SEALED WAX (HOBBY BOXES WITH MIN. 10 SALES OVER LAST 30 DAYS)
1. 2022 Select Draft Picks Football 📉 3%
2. 2022 Certified Football 📉 2%
3. 2022 Panini Black Football 📉 8%
4. 2022 Score Football 📉 7%
5. 2022 Elements Football 📉 7%
MARKET PULSE INDEXES OVER LAST 30 DAYS
Football 2018-2020: 📉 6%
- KEY RISER: Lamar Jackson 2018 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 37%
- KEY DECLINER: Josh Allen 2018 Optic Base PSA 10 📉 21%
Football 2010-2017: 📈 14%
- KEY RISER: Patrick Mahomes 2017 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📈 22%
- KEY DECLINER: Tom Brady 2012 Prizm Base PSA 10 📉 40%
Football 2000-2009: 📉 16%
- KEY RISER: Tom Brady 2000 Bowman Base PSA 9 📈 10%
- KEY DECLINER: Tom Brady 2000 Bowman Chrome Base PSA 10 📉 14%
Football 1990-1999: 📉 9%
- KEY RISER: Kurt Warner 1999 Bowman’s Best Base PSA 10 📈 42%
- KEY DECLINER: Peyton Manning 1998 Topps Base PSA 10 📉 34%
Football 1980-1989: 📉 3%
- KEY RISER: Jerry Rice 1986 Topps Base PSA 9 📈 32%
- KEY DECLINER: Lawrence Taylor 1982 Topps Base PSA 10 📉 11%
Football 1979 & Older: 📉 6%
- KEY RISER: Fran Tarkenton 1962 Topps Base PSA 7 📈 15%
- KEY DECLINER: Joe Namath 1965 Topps Base PSA 6 📉 27%
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