Why Jackson Chourio Could Be Next in Line for a Hobby Breakout
Baseball prospecting is one of the best ways to make money in the hobby. Whether you’re looking to fund your PC or fund your life, buying prospects and selling at call-up is one of the easiest ways to profit from flipping sports cards.
But oftentimes, sports card investors who flip Bowman Chrome 1st Prospects shoot themselves in the foot by not staying narrow enough. Why? Because not every prospect gets called up, let alone called up while there’s still significant enough hype behind them.
So those who over-prospect may profit on some top guys, but simultaneously lose money on others by casting too wide a net, and almost come out in a wash without realizing it.
After examining data of some top prospects over the last couple of years, there’s a pattern that almost always yields profit. Take the top overall prospect that hasn’t been called up yet but has an expected MLB arrival date within the next 12 months, and target their Bowman Chrome 1st PSA 10s.
The prospect who fits that exact profile currently is Jackson Chourio, the 19-year-old outfielder for the Double-A Biloxi Shuckers of the Brewers organization. He is ranked as the No. 1 overall prospect by MLB.com, and has been a hobby favorite for the last year.
Why is now a great time to buy Chourio? Well, it’s simple profiling and pattern recognition. We’ve covered the profile, now here’s the pattern.
When looking at Elly De La Cruz’s 2022 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Edition 1st PSA 10, whoever bought that card pre-call-up and sold immediately during the call-up hype week made a profit.
The average sale of that card since September 2022 is around $120, and the highest sales were around $200. Since he was called up in June, that card has sold multiple times for more than $270 and for as high as $335.
If we go back one more year, we see that Oneil Cruz’s 2016 Bowman Chrome 1st Base Auto PSA 10 sold multiple times for less than $300 leading up to his eventual call-up last June when the card sold multiple times for more than $700.
Chourio’s 2022 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Edition 1st PSA 10 sells for between $100 and $125 currently, eerily similar to De La Cruz’s pricing on the exact same card for the year prior to his call-up.
So rather than spreading yourself too thin and going after a mixture of guys like Curtis Mead, Tyler Soderstrom, Brooks Lee, Evan Carter and Marcelo Mayer, sticking with one guy could reduce risk, limit downside, and consistently make money. And in this case, that one guy is Chourio.
Additionally, Elly De La Cruz’s 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Base PSA 10 sold for around $50 back in May. It now sells for more than $115, and as high as $129. Guess how much Chourio’s same card sells for right now? Yep, around $50.
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Paul Hickey is a regular contributor to Sports Card Investor, the creator of the Sports Card Investment Report at NoOffseason.com, and the host of the Sports Card Strategy Show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube. He can be found on Instagram at @sportscardstrategy and on Twitter @nooffseasoncard.