Gilgeous-Alexander Reignites His Sports Card Hobby Market

One of the original hobby favorites from the stacked 2018 NBA Draft class, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander saw his market cool over the last few years as he put up strong numbers without the Thunder winning many games.

The Thunder still aren’t a contender in the West, but Gilgeous-Alexander has played like a megastar to start the season while averaging nearly 32 points per game, and his cards have adjusted in a major way. Read about Gilgeous-Alexander and other trending basketball cards in this week’s NBA Market Movers.

Cards listed below are PSA 10s with a minimum average of $30 and 10 sales over the last 30 days.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE RISERS

1. Lauri Markkanen 2017 Optic Shock PSA 10 📈 246%

2. Lauri Markkanen 2017 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 138%

3. Donovan Mitchell 2017 Hoops Base PSA 10 📈 131%

4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2018 Optic Base PSA 10 📈 128%

5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2018 Hoops Base PSA 10 📈 125%

SHAI BREAKS OUT: It’s a great time to be a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander fan — and collector or investor. The fifth-year guard is having his best season ever by a wide margin, and has destroyed opposing defenses for 32-6-4 while shooting 38% from 3. Gilgeous-Alexander has been a hobby favorite since coming into the league as part of that stacked 2018 NBA Draft, but he’s been truly explosive to start this year.

Overall, his PSA 10s tracked by Market Movers are up 21% collectively over the last 30 days and his flagship rookies across Donruss, Optic, Prizm and Select are all up over that period, too. His cards still aren’t anywhere close to prices from 2020 — that’s pretty unrealistic in the current market — but he’s managed to see positive price growth despite the Basketball 2018-2020 Market Pulse Index of important cards being down 14% over the last month.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE DECLINERS

1. James Wiseman 2020 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 68%

2. Tyrese Maxey 2020 Prizm Green PSA 10 📉 68%

3. Scottie Barnes 2021 Prizm Base PSA 10 📉 68%

4. Zion Williamson 2019 Prizm Draft Picks Silver PSA 10 📉 68%

5. Patrick Williams 2020 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 66%

YOUNG PLAYERS DIPPING: Top draft picks often enter the sports card hobby with a small amount of success already cooked into their card prices, and eventually we see dips if those expectations aren’t met. We might be seeing that now with players like James Wiseman, Tyrese Maxey, Scottie Barnes and Patrick Williams. All four players have recently seen big dips on their PSA 10s tracked by Market Movers and all but Maxey have seen drops on their signature Prizm Base PSA 10 over the last 30 days.

Overall market dips could have an impact, but a closer look at each situation shows a clear picture as to why collectors could have moved away some. Wiseman was recently sent to Golden State’s G League affiliate for more playing time after averaging just 14 minutes with the Warriors. Maxey is playing his best basketball and is averaging more minutes than ever, but Philadelphia adding James Harden certainly doesn’t help Maxey’s outlook for the immediate future.

Scottie Barnes seems to have regressed some in Toronto after winning Rookie of the Year and it doesn’t help that Pascal Siakam is playing at an MVP level. And Patrick Williams just isn’t producing like many expected. The sports card hobby can be extremely unforgiving at times, and this group might just be one that hasn’t ascended to superstardom fast enough.

DOLLAR GROWTH RISERS

1. Luka Doncic 2018 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📈 $184

2. Desmond Bane 2020 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📈 $121

3. David Robinson 1989 Hoops Base PSA 10 📈 $93

4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2018 Prizm Green PSA 10 📈 $89

5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2018 Prizm Pink Ice PSA 10 📈 $75

LUKA BACK ON TOP: It didn’t take long for Luka Doncic‘s cards to start trending back in the right direction. Doncic’s market isn’t up a ton, but anything positive in the current economic conditions should probably be considered a win. His PSA 10s tracked by Market Movers are up 1% collectively over the last 30 days and several of his flagship rookies — like his Prizm Silver PSA 10 and his Donruss Base PSA 10 — are showing positive trends.

Like Gilgeous-Alexander, Doncic keeping a positive trend is impressive when you consider the Basketball 2018-2020 Market Pulse Index is down 14% over the last 30 days.

DOLLAR GROWTH DECLINERS

1. Zion Williamson 2019 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 $750

2. Kevin Durant 2007 Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 📉 $711

3. James Wiseman 2020 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 $340

4. LeBron James 2003 Topps Base PSA 10 📉 $339

5. Kawhi Leonard 2012 Prizm Base PSA 10 📉 $304

DURANT DRAMA: Kevin Durant has always been an interesting case, as he’s been incredible on the court and relatively popular in the hobby, but he seems to be more volatile than other more stable stars like LeBron James and Steph Curry. The situation in Brooklyn is pretty complicated right now, too, with the future of Kyrie Irving somewhat uncertain and it still unclear if Durant wants to stay long-term.

Durant has been great again this season, but for the time being the Nets still aren’t good at basketball. Brooklyn is just 6-9 to start the season, Ben Simmons has been a disaster so far, and it’s unclear how the roster gets better. Durant’s PSA 10s tracked by Market Movers are down 16% collectively over the last 30 days, and his signature 2007 Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 has dropped 44% over that same period.

It’s safe to say that Durant is one of the most dynamic scorers the NBA has ever seen and is an easy first-ballot Hall of Famer, so he’s still likely a strong long-term hold even if his current prices aren’t trending in the right direction.

SALES VOLUME LEADERS

1. Zion Williamson 2019 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 211 sales

2. Ja Morant 2019 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 202 sales

3. Luka Doncic 2018 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 148 sales

4. Anthony Edwards 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 📈 127 sales

5. Luka Doncic 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 📈 118 sales

POPULAR SEALED WAX (HOBBY BOXES WITH MIN. 10 SALES OVER LAST 30 DAYS)

1. 2021 One and One Basketball 📉 4%

2. 2022 Chronicles Draft Picks Basketball 📉 20%

3. 2022 Prizm WNBA Basketball 📈 5%

4. 2021 Select Basketball 📉 19%

5. 2021 Spectra Basketball 📈 1%

MARKET PULSE INDEXES OVER LAST 30 DAYS

Basketball 2018-2020: 📉 14%

• KEY RISER: Ja Morant 2019 Optic Holo PSA 10 📈 36%
• KEY DECLINER: Zion Williamson 2019 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📉 41%

Basketball 2010-2017: 📉 13%

• KEY RISER: Joel Embiid 2014 Prizm Silver PSA 10 📈 45%
• KEY DECLINER: Kawhi Leonard 2012 Prizm Base PSA 10 📉 51%

Basketball 2000-2009: 📉 11%

• KEY RISER: Stephen Curry 2009 Panini Base PSA 10 📈 27%
• KEY DECLINER: Kevin Durant 2007 Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 📉 44%

Basketball 1990-1999: 📉 6%

• KEY RISER: Dirk Nowitzki 1998 Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 📈 41%
• KEY DECLINER: Kobe Bryant 1996 Fleer Base PSA 10 📉 28%

Basketball 1980-1989: 📈 4%

• KEY RISER: Michael Jordan 1986 Fleer Base PSA 8 📈 14%
• KEY DECLINER: Bird/Erving/Johnson 1980 Topps Base PSA 8 📉 9%

Basketball 1979 & Older: 📉 6%

• KEY RISER: Moses Malone 1975 Topps Base PSA 9 📈 42%
• KEY DECLINER: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1969 Topps Base PSA 7 📉 13%

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