2023 MLB Prospects: Top Names, Deep Cuts and Prospect Fatigue
When smart, sports card investors can have a ton of fun and make a ridiculous amount of money focusing on acquiring and selling baseball prospects – specifically Bowman Chrome 1st Refractors, serial-numbered refractors/parallels and autos.
A common misconception with baseball prospect flipping is that you’re taking on the risk of a minor leaguer becoming a major league star one day. If the payoff only came in that case, most would never try it.
But the reality is that when prospects are acquired a year or so after the initial release of their Bowman 1sts – allowing the market to settle – then flipped during a hype cycle, you will have a good chance at a profit. While hype cycles exist typically in March and April when excitement for the baseball season is super high, there is no bigger hype cycle for a prospect than the call-up.
And there’s often no larger value crash than post debut, when the prospect typically struggles to hit Major League pitching.
So, which prospects make sense to monitor this baseball season? Here are players to watch, broken down into four key categories.
Captain Obvious – Everybody knows these guys. They’re expensive, and if you’re holding them right now, you’re risking not being able to sell at a premium.
Gunnar Henderson, SS, Baltimore Orioles
Still technically rated the No. 1 overall prospect at MLB.com, the 21-year-old made his MLB debut last year, but is the favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year this season. His 2019 Bowman Draft Refractor Auto /499 Raw is up $430 (350%) in the last 365 days, making it an amazing time to offload his cards for profit. His 2019 Bowman Draft Chrome Base Auto PSA 10 is also up $433 (259%) in the last 365 days.
Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
The 22-year-old outfielder batted .260 in 32 games with the D-Backs last season, and is the favorite for 2023 NL Rookie of the Year. Like Henderson, he’s still on the MLB.com top prospects list, but will fall off in a few weeks when the list is updated and Major Leaguers are removed. His 2019 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Refractor Auto /499 Raw is up $463 (247%) over the last 365 days.
Jordan Walker, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
The 20-year-old became the youngest player to make his MLB debut in over 40 years when the Cards took on the Blue Jays on Opening Day. Baseball card investors have high hopes for Walker, as his 2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Refractor (non-auto) PSA 10 is up $115 (62.2%), and his 2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Base Auto PSA 10 is selling for more than $1,400 over the last 30 days. Expectations are super high for him, making now the best time to sell.
Note: Last year’s Rookies of the Year (Julio Rodriguez, AL and Jeremy Pena, NL) sold for about the same price in comparable cards to the guys mentioned above in October 2022 after winning their awards as they did when they got their call ups in March/April 2022.
Anthony Volpe, SS, New York Yankees
Apparently Volpe’s former high school team canceled their game to watch him make his Major League Debut at Yankee Stadium on March 30. The 21-year-old went 0-2 with a walk, and his 2020 Bowman Chrome Prospect Atomic Refractor Auto /100 PSA 10 is up $1,600 (63%) over the last 365 days. His 2020 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Refractor PSA 10 is up $775 (33%) over the last 30 days.
Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
The 19-year-old Venezuelan prospect has been red hot, shooting to the No. 8 overall prospect on MLB.com over the last year, with an expected big league call-up in 2024. He hit .324 with 12 HR and 47 RBI in 62 games last year in Carolina (A-ball) and the entire baseball world expects huge things from him this year for the Double-A Biloxi Shuckers. His long-awaited 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto PSA 10 is up $175 (30%), and his 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospects Aqua Refractor /125 PSA 10 is up $160 (46%).
Elly De La Cruz, SS, Cincinnati Reds
Perhaps the most exciting future Major Leaguer on this list, the 6-foot-5, 21-year-old SS/3B will start the year with a minor hamstring injury that may slow him down a bit, but most expect him to make an impact in the big leagues at some point this season. He can absolutely rake, and has exciting exit velocity similar to fellow towering shortstop and left-handed hitter Oneil Cruz (Pirates SS). His 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Refractor /499 PSA 10 is up $675 (73%) over the last 365 days, and his 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Base Auto PSA 10 is up $277 (55%) over the last 365 days.
Jasson Dominguez, OF, New York Yankees
He might be the most polarizing name on this list, due to massive sales of his cards being recorded over the last couple of years despite him having accomplished absolutely nothing at any significant level of baseball. That said, the 20-year-old in the Yankees uniform is the No. 48 MLB.com prospect, but more like the No. 1 household name among sports card investors over the last couple of years. The hype train rolls along, as Dominguez’s 2020 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto PSA 10 is up $323 (31%) over the last 365 days.
Coming Soon – You likely know these names, but maybe haven’t bought their cards yet as they’re a bit far away from making a major league debut. But make no mistake, many of these guys could be on the list above.
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
The sixth overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft is a 20-year-old SS who has hit .305 with 16 HR and 63 RBI in 102 Minor League games over two seasons and is already the No. 11 prospect on MLB.com’s Top 100. His 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome DP Auto Refractor /499 PSA 10 is up $150 (10%) over the last 365 days.
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Boston Red Sox
Like Lawlar, Mayer is another hot SS prospect: 20-years-old, drafted fourth overall in 2021 (two picks before Lawlar), and is No. 9 on MLB.com’s Top 100 Prospects list. He’s batted .270 with 16 HR and 70 RBI in 117 Minor League games over two seasons. Judging by the players in the previous list and their value increases over the last year, you could probably eat from simply buying Lawlar and Mayer over the next season and flipping them heading into the 2024 season as they get the pre-call-up hype. Mayer’s 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome DP Auto Refractor /499 PSA 10 is up $55 (16%) over the last 365 days.
James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals
The 20-year-old OF is a massive 6-foot-6 slugger who has hit .326 with 15 HR and 84 RBI across 102 Minor League games and earned his way up the MLB.com Top 100 Prospects list to No. 17. He was included with CJ Abrams in the Juan Soto deal last summer, returning to his hometown area. His 2022 1st Bowman Sapphire Edition Chrome Prospects Auto Raw is up $150 (100%) over the last 365 days.
Endy Rodriguez, C, Pittsburgh Pirates
About as versatile as they come, Rodriguez plays catcher, second and outfield, but his strength is as a hitter – and oh, by the way, he bats from both sides of the plate. His ability to hit should put him in the middle of the Pirates lineup sometime this season. When he does get the call, expect his cards to surge, especially his 2021 Bowman Sapphire Edition 1st Chrome Prospects Auto Raw, which is already up almost $70 (139%) over the last 365 days.
Brett Baty, 3B/OF, New York Mets
The 12th overall pick in 2019 is close to the callup. He should come over from Triple-A Syracuse in 2023 and he has size, power and versatility. His 2019 Bowman Draft Chrome DP Auto Raw is up $17 (17%) over the last 365 days.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
CES is not on MLB.com’s Top 100 prospect list, but probably should be. A former 34th-round draft pick in 2019, and a fourth round pick in 2021, Encarnacion-Strand is a phenomenal hitter, and has consistently hit for average and power during his entire career in college and the minors. He projects as a 1B or 3B if he makes it to the bigs in 2023. His 2021 Bowman Draft Sapphire Edition PSA 10 is up $68 (101%) over the last 365 days.
Druw Jones, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
The second overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft doesn’t have any Bowman cards out yet, but you can pre-order 2023 Bowman Baseball now. Andruw Jones’ son will be the top chase, as he should have his 1st Chrome autos in this upcoming release, set for late April.
Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles
Like Jones, Holliday – the No. 11 pick in the 2022 MLB Draft – is already in MLB.com’s Top-15 overall prospects. The smooth-swinging young shortstop projects to be a top name for baseball prospectors over the next couple of years as he climbs the minor league ladder to the big leagues. He’s already super liquid, as his 2022 Bowman Draft Chrome DP Auto has sold 192 times since it was released in December 2022.
Deep Cuts – These guys are only on your radar if you’re a true baseball prospector, or a dynasty fantasy baseball player.
Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
The No. 73 overall prospect on MLB.com’s Top 100 is the power hitting 1B, Kyle “The Stache” Manzardo. Yet another solid youngster in the Ray’s organization, the former second-round pick is projected to hit the big leagues later this season. Baseball investors have taken notice of his rise, as his 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome DP Auto is up $58 (397%) over the last 365 days.
Curtis Mead, 3B/2B, Tampa Bay Rays
While Manzardo is with the Montgomery Biscuits in Double-A, Mead is with the Triple-A Durham Bulls, and is expected to be Manzardo’s teammate in Tampa later this season. A former Australian Baseball League star, Mead is super liquid among baseball card prospectors, as his 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto Raw has sold 286 times over the last 365 days.
Oscar Colas, OF, Chicago White Sox
Colas is with the White Sox already, but isn’t hyped up in the mainstream like some other names on this list, making him a bit of a sleeper baseball card play as he makes his first MLB appearances after being dubbed “The Cuban Ohtani” while pitching and playing OF in Cuba. His 2022 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Edition 1st Prospects Auto Raw is up $84 (73%) over the last 365 days.
Evan Carter, OF, Texas Rangers
A 2020 second-round pick projected for a 2024 MLB arrival, Carter is a solid buy-low prospect at No. 41 overall on MLB.com’s Top 100. His 2020 Bowman Chrome DP Auto Refractor /499 Raw trades for about $165, up $93 (129%) from a year ago.
Colt Keith, 3B, Detroit Tigers
The No. 4 prospect in the Tigers organization, the former fifth-round pick projects to hit the big leagues in 2024. He skipped going to Arizona State to head to the High-A West Michigan Whitecaps after the Tigers signed him for $500,000. He hit .301/.370/.544 with 26 extra-base hits in 48 games before suffering a shoulder injury. He can be bought cheap or in bulk if you believe in him as his 2020 Bowman Draft Chrome DP Refractor Auto /499 can be had for $150, but is up from only $45 from a year ago.
Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Colorado Rockies
The 21-year-old will make his Rockies debut this season after the organization started scouting him at the age of only 13 while he was in the Dominican Republic. His 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto Refractor /499 PSA 10 is up $112 (50%) over the last 365 days.
Izaac Pacheco, SS/3B, Detroit Tigers
Going super deep here, Pacheco is the No. 14 prospect in the Tigers organization, but is 6-foot-3, and was projected by many as a first-round pick in the 2021 Draft. The Tigers got the left-handed power hitter early in the second round, and like what they see from him so far. His 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Refractor Auto /499 sold for $48 in PSA 9 on March 17.
Prospect Fatigue – We’ve heard these names for years now. Will they ever materialize?
CJ Abrams, SS, Washington Nationals
It’s now or never for Abrams, the sixth overall draft pick in 2019. After being the main piece for Washington in the Juan Soto blockbuster last summer, Abrams will have the SS job to himself in DC. His cards have been flat over the last 365 days, so his investors will cash in if he performs, but could be left holding the bag if he doesn’t.
Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco Giants
He’s been around since 2018, and doesn’t project to get to the bigs until 2024. He’s a top-rated middle infielder, as the No. 25 overall prospect on MLB.com’s Top 100, but is in danger of feeling some prospect fatigue in the hobby. His 2019 Bowman 1st Paper Prospects already has a PSA 10 pop count of more than 1,000 and all of his top Bowman Chrome 1st autos are down nearly 50% over the last 365 days. This is either a huge buying opportunity or the lust has worn off a bit.
Brennen Davis, OF, Chicago Cubs
Manyl thought he would be a star in Chicago when he homered twice in the 2021 MLB Futures Game at the All-Star break two years ago. Well, we’re 18 months later, and he’s not even really close to getting to the bigs. He’s already 24 years old. Avoid his 2020 Bowman cards, as they’re the same photo as his 2018 Bowman 1sts. His 2018 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Base Auto in PSA 10 trades for less than $60.
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Paul Hickey is a regular contributor to Sports Card Investor, the creator of the Sports Card Investment Report at NoOffseason.com, and the host of the Sports Card Strategy Show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube. He can be found on Instagram at @sportscardstrategy and on Twitter @nooffseasoncard.
